Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/245472 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9291
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We employ a new version of the ABC macro-epidemiological agent based model presented in Delli Gatti and Reissl (2020) to evaluate the effects of vaccinations and variants on the epidemic and macroeconomic outlook. Vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves, while also significantly improving macroeconomic performance. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, increasing the volatility of epidemic curves and worsening the macroeconomic outlook. If a more contagious variant emerges after vaccination becomes available, therefore, the mitigating factor of the latter is at least partially offset by the former. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.
Subjects: 
agent-based models
epidemic
Covid
vaccination
variant
JEL: 
E21
E22
E24
E27
I12
I15
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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