Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/238288 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IRENE Working Paper No. 20-05
Publisher: 
University of Neuchâtel, Institute of Economic Research (IRENE), Neuchâtel
Abstract: 
Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be computed with a delay of one day. Moreover, it is highly correlated with macroeconomic data and survey indicators of Swiss economic activity. Therefore, it provides timely and reliable warning signals if the health of the economy takes a turn for the worse.
Subjects: 
Covid-19
Leading indicator
Financial market data
News sentiment
Forecasting
Switzerland
JEL: 
E32
E37
C53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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