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Title:The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities of foreign exchange PDF Logo
Authors:Craig, Ben R.
Keller, Joachim
Issue Date:2005
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper, Series 2: Banking and Financial Supervision 2005,05
Abstract:We estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities that is based on the inverse probability functions and is modified to account for correlation across time between our random variables, which are uniform under the null hypothesis. We find that the densities based on the Americanoption markets for foreign exchange do quite well for the forecasting period over which the options are thickly traded. Further, simple models that fit the densities do about as well as more sophisticated models. Keywords: Risk-neutral densities from option prices, American exchange rate options, Evaluating Density Forecasts, Pentionominal tree, Density evaluation, Overlapping data problem
Subjects:Risk-neutral densities from option prices
American exchange rate options
Evaluating Density Forecasts
Pentionominal tree
Density evaluation
JEL:F47
C63
F31
C52
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

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