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ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München >
CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18876
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| Title: | | Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks  |
| Authors: | | Timmermann, Allan Pettenuzzo, Davide Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem |
| Issue Date: | | 2004 |
| Series/Report no.: | | CESifo working papers 1237 |
| Abstract: | | This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if any) by means of a hierarchical hidden Markov chain model. Predictions are formed by integrating over the hyper parameters from the meta distributions that characterize the stochastic break point process. In an application to US Treasury bill rates, we find that the method leads to better out-of-sample forecasts than alternative methods that ignore breaks, particularly at long horizons. |
| Subjects: | | structural breaks forecasting hierarchical hidden Markov chain model Bayesian model averaging |
| JEL: | | C53 C11 C15 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich
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