Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/98645
Authors: 
Beckmann, Joscha
Belke, Ansgar
Kühl, Michael
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
ROME Discussion Paper Series 13-07
Abstract: 
This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the dollar-yen exchange rate in the long run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is basically not a new topic; however, we put our focus on two new questions. Firstly, does the consideration of periods of massive interventions in the foreign exchange market help to uncover a potential long-run relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals? Secondly, do Forex interventions support the adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium value? Our overall results suggest that taking periods of interventions into account within a monetary model does improve the goodness of fit of an identified longrun relationship to a significant degree. Furthermore, Forex interventions increase the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium in some periods, particularly in periods of coordinated forex interventions. Our results indicate that only coordinated interventions seem to stabilize the dollar-yen exchange rate in a long-run perspective. This is a novel contribution to the literature.
Subjects: 
Structural exchange rate models
cointegration
intervention analysis
JEL: 
E44
F31
G12
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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