Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/98468
Authors: 
Pierdzioch, Christian
Rülke, Jan-Christoph
Year of Publication: 
2013
Citation: 
[Journal:] Economies [ISSN:] 2227-7099 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Volume:] 1 [Year:] 2013 [Issue:] 1 [Pages:] 6-13
Abstract: 
We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we consider a model that allows the shape of forecasters' loss function to be studied. The shape of forecasters' loss function may be consistent with a symmetric or an asymmetric loss function. We find that an asymmetric loss function often (but not always) makes forecasts look rational, and we also report that forecast rationality may have changed over time.
Subjects: 
oil price
forecasting
loss function
rationality of forecasts
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
Document Type: 
Article
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