Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/98195
Authors: 
Rosenzweig, Mark R.
Udry, Christopher
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Center Discussion Paper, Economic Growth Center 1036
Abstract: 
We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harveststage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.
Subjects: 
wages
forecasting
migration
JEL: 
O12
O13
O15
Q12
J2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
106.28 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.