Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/97695
Authors: 
Fair, Ray C.
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25
Abstract: 
An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.
Subjects: 
central bank
uncertainty
stochastic simulation
JEL: 
E50
Creative Commons License: 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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