Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/96957 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2008
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers No. 3/2008
Verlag: 
Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Vienna
Zusammenfassung: 
After a comparative study of the Lee-Carter forecasting method and looking into the direct extrapolation of mortality by age and sex, this paper advocates the use of the latter method. The method is, however, supplemented by additional procedures in order to improve its efficiency in the short run and preclude implausible mortality patterns in the long run. The short-run efficiency is improved by building the forecast on data from the most recent periods of age/sex-specific duration, when the mortality dynamics exhibit a steady trend. In the long run, the rates of the decline in mortality are assumed to converge to a plausible function of age and sex, which is derived from the data based on the assumption that it is a monotonic function of age. The framework proposed also provides a natural basis for developing multi-regional projection methods and also for introducing uncertainty into the projection.
Schlagwörter: 
Mortality forecasting
direct extrapolation
age-specific death rates
Lee-Carter method
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
1.7 MB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.