Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/96670
Authors: 
Breuer, Christian
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Ifo Working Paper 176
Abstract: 
In the present paper I examine tax revenue projections in Germany over the period 1968 to 2012 with a focus on forecasting rationality. I show that tax revenue forecasts for themedium-term are upward biased. Overoptimistic revenue projections are particularly pronounced after the German reunification and reflect upward-biased GDP projections in this period. The predicted tax-GDP-ratio appears to be upward biased, as well. The forecasts are likely to overestimate tax revenues if the redicted tax-GDP-ratio exceeds its structural level of approximately 22 ½ percentage points. The results also indicate that forecast errors of short-term projections for the current year exhibit serial correlation. It is conceivable that the specific institutional setting can explain this non-rational behaviour to some extent.
Subjects: 
Tax revenue forecasting
forecast rationality
budgetary Planning.
JEL: 
E62
H20
H68
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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