Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/95949
Authors: 
Drechsel, Katja
Giesen, Sebastian
Lindner, Axel
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
IWH Discussion Papers 4/2014
Abstract: 
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.
Subjects: 
IMF WEO forecasts
leading indicators
real-time data
JEL: 
C52
C53
E02
E32
E37
O19
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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