Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/92316 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2014
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 1360
Verlag: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. Above all, we are interested in whether the local business confidence indicators can allow substantially improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No single indicator appears to dominate all the others for all cities and market segments. However, there are several predictors that are especially useful, namely the business confidence at the national level, consumer confidence, and price-to-rent ratios. Given the short sample size, the combinations of individual forecast do not improve the forecast accuracy. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by reduction in RMSFE, compared to the naive model. In separate cases, however, the magnitude of improvement is about 50%.
Schlagwörter: 
housing prices
housing rents
forecasting
spatial dependence
German cities
confidence indicators
chambers of commerce and industry
JEL: 
C21
C23
C53
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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