Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/92170 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2009
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ISER Working Paper Series No. 2009-32
Verlag: 
University of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), Colchester
Zusammenfassung: 
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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