Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/91425
Authors: 
Schettini, Bernardo Patta
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
Texto para Discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) 1822
Abstract (Translated): 
This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels of indebtedness; ii) threshold regressions, which account for the influence of monetary policy in the fiscal stance; and iii) a comparison of the estimates by the means of forecast statistics. The following indications are noteworthy: i) there is a tendency to reduce de surpluses as a proportion of GDP, due to the persistent decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio; ii) the CPI inflation and the interest outlays represent state variables in the determination of the surpluses; and iii) the scenario for fiscal policy depends on how those variables will behave after the cuts in the Selic rate in the recent cycle of monetary expansion.
Subjects: 
primary surpluses
net public debt
inflation rate
interest accruals
threshold regressions
JEL: 
E63
H62
H68
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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