dos Santos, Cláudio Hamilton Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno Gobetti, Sérgio Wulff
Year of Publication:
Texto para Discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) 1350
This article discusses the dynamics of both the size and the composition of the Brazilian aggregate tax burden (BATB) in the 1995-2007 period and presents several (linear and non-linear) econometric specifications for this last variable. Our main conclusion - based both on the analysis of the dynamics of the composition of the BATB and on several of the econometric exercises presented - is that the decade-long increase of the BATB can be divided in two regimes, i.e. i) a first regime in the 1998-2003 (crisis) period in which the increase in the BATB was achieved through higher taxation of state-owned enterprises and the creation of new taxes and/or increases in existing taxes; and ii) a second regime in the 2004-2007 period in which the increase in the BATB seems to be related to an increase in firms` profits and in the degree of formalization of the overall economy (and of the labor market in particular) associated with a new (and still not quite well understood) period of economic growth.