Texto para Discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) 1891
This paper aims to discuss a methodology to calculate the error bands for exchange rate misalignments estimative. The exchange misalignment is not directly observed and its precision depends on the coefficients that link fundamentals to real effective exchange rate. The precision of exchange rate misalignments relies on standard errors of the parameters estimative. This paper bases its results on the econometric methodology developed by Alberola et al. (1999) to calculate misalignments and suggest a bootstrap approach to calculate error bands. The misalignment estimative is based on cointegration techiniques and the permanent and transitory decomposition developed by Gonzalo e Granger (1995). The development of error bands is important to highlight the precision and the limitations of the misalignment exchange rate calculus exercise and allows the analysts to distingue minor from relevant misalignments.