Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/91069
Authors: 
Schettini, Bernardo Patta
Squeff, Gabriel Coelho
Gouvêa, Raphael Rocha
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
Texto para Discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) 1598
Abstract (Translated): 
This paper presents new econometric specifications for the Brazilian exports in the period 1995-2009 using data from the Quarterly Accounts and allowing for nonlinearities. In the cointegrating vector, there is evidence of a level shift, but the elasticities have not changed significantly. The income-elasticity remained close to the unity, and the real exchange rate multiplier was small. In the short-run dynamics, the world income exerts a nonnegligible influence, and the exchange rate is not significant. We estimate the correction of disequilibria occurs within three quarters. In addition, we underscore selected models exhibited a good performance in the outof-sample one-step-ahead forecast.
JEL: 
F1
F17
C22
C52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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