Neto, Carlos Alvares da Silva Campos de Paula, Jean Marlo Pepino de Souza, Frederico Hartmann
Year of Publication:
Texto para Discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) 1668
This paper has two main purposes. The first is to present, to analyze and to suggest road infrastructure investment and financing policies in Brazil. The second objective is to analyze toll road concessions, with emphasis on toll tariffs. For the last eight years federal road investment (at constant prices) has increased significantly. From 2003 to 2010, investments have climbed from R$ 1,3 billion to R$ 10,3 billion, representing an increase of 700%. Private investments were basically flat during the 2002-2007 period, with an average annual investment of R$ 1,8 billion. From 2007 on, due to road concessions, such a pattern has changed as private investment rose to reach a two-fold increase by 2010 (R$ 3,6 billion). Given the Brazilian road system, we calculate investment per kilometer, both for public roads and the conceded ones. Although the public and private investments per kilometer have increased, for the last eight years private investments were higher than public investments. From 2003 to 2010, investments per kilometer in conceded roads have gone from R$ 152 mil/km to R$ 239 mil/km, a 57% increase. For the same period, investments in federal roads rose 641%, reaching R$ 178 mil/km by 2010. This paper also presents a transport infrastructure investment plan for the next 15 years, according to which Brazil should invest about 3,4% of its GDP in order to catch up with developing countries. It means to invest R$ 125 billion per year (much more than the R$ 23,4 billion invested through 2010). From 2006 to 2010, road infrastructure accounts for 55,2% of total transport investments. At such a pace, for the next five years Brazil would invest about R$ 69 billion per year in road infrastructure. We also calculate toll tariff for Brazilian concessions. Firstly, we obtain a Federal Average Toll Tariff from the tariffs defined by the Federal Concessions Programme that took place throughout 1995-1997 and 2008-2009. Moreover, we compare toll tariff evolution during the 1995-2011 period with inflation rates measured by the Brazilian CPI. We conclude that toll prices for all the federal concessions have risen faster than prices measured by CPI, representing a burden on road users. Besides, we calculate State Average Tariff, which covers seven states that have implemented road concessions. Finally, we present the Brazilian Average Tariff, which takes into account toll tariff charged at federal and state conceded roads.