Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/89626 
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 4563
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the EU, where there was no change in policy.
Subjects: 
manufacturing
trade policy
uncertainty
offshoring
supply chains
employment
China
World Trade Organizations
PNTR
JEL: 
F13
F16
F61
F66
J23
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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