Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/87598
Authors: 
Lanquar, Robert
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
CASE Network Reports 98
Abstract: 
For the last two decades, MED11 counties (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Autonomy, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) have recorded the highest growth rate in inbound world tourism. In the same time, domestic tourism in these countries was growing very fast. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing in light of the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties of the region. The last financial crisis had no severe consequences on this development, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the MED 11 countries in this sector. This trend was abruptly halted in early 2011 during the Arab Spring, but could resume when the situation stabilizes. This paper questions whether this trend will continue in the period up to 2030 and, for that, provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in MED11 for 2030: (i) reference scenario, (ii) common sustainable development scenario, (iii) polarized (regional) development scenario and (iv) failed development - decline and conflict - scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourism arrivals will grow. However, security and adjustment to climate change remain the main factors that will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in MED11 countries.
Subjects: 
mediterranean
domestic tourism
international tourism
security
climate change
tourism indicators
tourism's economic contribution
tourism competitiveness
tourism prospective
tourism scenarios
JEL: 
D12
D60
E27
F47
H54
O53
O55
ISBN: 
978-83-7178-541-2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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