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Autoren: 
Charness, Gary
Rustichini, Aldo
van de Ven, Jeroen
Datum: 
2011
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 11-151/1
Zusammenfassung: 
We examine factors that may contribute to 'overconfidence' in relative ability on an intelligence test. We test experimentally for evidence of self-esteem concerns and instrumental strategic concerns. Errors in Bayesian updating are rare when the information does not involve own relative ability, but far more common when it does, suggesting self-esteem issues. There is also strong evidence that males state higher levels of confidence in relative ability when this precedes a tournament; as entry is predicted by relative confidence, this can be an effective deterrent. Inflating confidence can be part of an equilibrium strategy, providing a rationale for strategic overconfidence.
Schlagwörter: 
Self-confidence
overconfidence
strategic deterrence
unconscious behavior
selfdeception
JEL: 
A12
C91
D03
D82
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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