Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/87311
Authors: 
Vujic, Suncica
Commandeur, Jacques
Koopman, Siem Jan
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 12-007/4
Abstract: 
We adopt a structural time series analysis to investigate the impact of parole abolition and sentence reform in Virginia on reported crime rates. The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offences committed on or after January 1, 1995. To examine the impact of Virginia's change in legislation on reported crime rates from 1995 onwards, we perform an intervention time series analysis based on structural time series models. We empirically find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. For other violent crimes such as rape and aggravated assault the evidence of a significant reduction in crime rates is less evident or is not found. This empirical study for Virginia also provides an illustration of how an effective intervention time series analysis can be carried out in crime studies.
Subjects: 
Intervention time series analysis
Crime rates
Structural time series models
Unobserved components time series models
JEL: 
C22
C32
I28
K14
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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