Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/86887
Authors: 
Koster, Paul R.
Verhoef, Erik T.
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 10-069/3
Abstract: 
This paper proposes an analytical framework for scheduling decisions of road travelers that takes into account probability weighting using rank dependent utility theory. The fundamental difference with the standard scheduling model based on expected utility is that the probabilities of arrivals are treated in a non-linear way. This paper shows how scheduling decisions are affected by the weighted probabilities of the traveler. We derive the costs of non-optimal chosen departure times because of probability weighting and show that if the parameterized probability weighting function issimilar to what has been found for gambling, the costs of probability weighting for morningpeak car travelers are around 3 per cent. For the full range of parameters tested, we find costs inthe range of 0-24 percent of total travel costs.
Subjects: 
scheduling model
value of reliability
rank dependent utility
JEL: 
R40
R41
R42
R49
D81
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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