Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/84199
Authors: 
Streb, Jorge M.
Lema, Daniel
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
Serie Documentos de Trabajo, Universidad del CEMA: Área: economía y ciencia política 403
Abstract: 
While existing cross-country studies on political budget cycles rely on annual data, we build a panel with quarterly and monthly data from Latin American and OECD countries over the 1980-2005 period. Disaggregated data allow to center the electoral year more precisely, and show the effects are concentrated in a three-quarter window around elections. Cycles are statistically significant only in Latin America, but the pattern is similar to OECD countries: the budget surplus/GDP ratio falls in the election period and rises in the post-election period. In line with the logic of rational opportunistic manipulation, these effects cancel out.
Subjects: 
temporal aggregation
electoral window
pre- and post-electoral effects
political budget cycles
rational opportunistic cycles
JEL: 
D72
D78
H60
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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