Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/84183
Authors: 
Yang, Weonho
Fidrmuc, Jan
Ghosh, Sugata
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 4401
Abstract: 
We investigate the short-term effects of fiscal adjustment on economic activity in 20 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009. We compare two approaches: the traditional approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) and the narrative approach based on historical records. Proponents of the latter argue that it captures discretionary fiscal adjustment more accurately than the traditional approach. We propose a new definition of CAPB that takes account of fluctuations in asset prices and reflects idiosyncratic features of fiscal policy in individual countries. Using this new definition, we find that fiscal adjustments always have contractionary effects on economic activity in the short term; we find no evidence of expansionary (non-Keynesian) fiscal adjustments. Spending-based fiscal adjustments lead to smaller output loses than tax-based fiscal adjustment. These results are in line with the literature using the narrative approach, suggesting that the CAPB, when correctly specified, can be used as a measure of fiscal adjustments.
Subjects: 
fiscal policy
fiscal adjustment
narrative approach
cyclically adjusted primary balance
JEL: 
E13
E22
E62
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.