Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/83740 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2008
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Papers No. 2008-11
Verlag: 
Banco de México, Ciudad de México
Zusammenfassung (übersetzt): 
This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Specialists in Economics from the Private Sector, maintained by Banco de M'exico. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April 2008. The study evaluates the efficiency in the use of information and the relative performance using as benchmarks forecasts from time series models and from other macroeconomic variables. Inflation, interest rate, and GDP expectations seem to incorporate information in a relatively efficient manner. These forecasts appear to be better, in mean squared error terms, than the benchmark forecasts, except for the case of one-yearahead inflation. In addition, exchange rate forecasts do not seem to optimally incorporate available information and do not seem to improve upon forecasts obtained from a random walk model.
Schlagwörter: 
Predictive ability
Rational expectations
Rolling-forecasts
JEL: 
C22
C53
E17
E37
E47
F37
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
Erscheint in der Sammlung:

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
434.35 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.