Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/83701
Authors: 
Noriega, Antonio E.
Rodríguez-Pérez, Cid Alonso
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers, Banco de México 2011-11
Abstract (Translated): 
This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trendstationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which occurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements, wars, and financial and economic crises. These changes are modeled through logistic smooth transition functions, in which transition periods are endogenously estimated. In terms of growth rates, our results indicate that for Mexico real and real per capita GDP, there are four stationary growth paths, separated by three transition periods. For instance, for real GDP we identify the following stationary growth paths: 1895-1924, 1935-1952, 1956-1978, and 1989-2008, separated by three transition periods: 1925-1934, 1953-1955, and 1979-1988.
Subjects: 
gross domestic product
economic growth
stationarity
unit root
structural break
logistic function
smooth transition
JEL: 
C12
C13
C15
C22
O47
O54
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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