Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/83294 
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
IES Working Paper No. 15/2009
Publisher: 
Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES), Prague
Abstract: 
This paper analyzes possible incidences of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail.
Subjects: 
economy of migration
Turkey
EU Enlargement
panel data
seemingly unrelated regression
JEL: 
C33
F15
F22
J11
J61
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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