Discussion Paper, Turkish Economic Association 2006/14
In this paper, Turkish high and persistent inflation experience and its impact on inflation uncertainty and growth have been investigated. GARCH models are used to generate a measure of inflation uncertainty and quarterly data covers the period of 1987:1-2003:3. According to the results from this study, inflation and inflation uncertainty are of negative impacts on growth in Turkey in the analyzed period. However, inflation uncertainty has much more negative effect on growth in comparison with inflation. In other words, while 1% increase in inflation rate decrease growth 0.56%, an 1% increase in inflation uncertainty diminishes growth 3.95%.
Inflation Inflation uncertainty Growth Time series analysis