Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/82430
Authors: 
Lindström, Tomas
Year of Publication: 
2000
Series/Report no.: 
Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series 116
Abstract: 
An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that traditional autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models based on business survey data can provide more accurate one-quarter-ahead forecasts of output growth than naive alternatives. Another finding is that when BTS variables concerning ex post (ex ante) output growth are included in the empirical specifications, then no other ex post (ex ante) business survey variables seems to include any additional information about output growth.
Subjects: 
Business cycles
Economic indicators
Manufacturing
Survey data
Time-series models
JEL: 
C22
C42
C53
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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