Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/82391
Authors: 
Lindh, Thomas
Year of Publication: 
1999
Series/Report no.: 
Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series 99
Abstract: 
Economic behavior as well as economic resources of individuals vary with age. Swedish time series show that the age structure of the population contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth, inflation and other macroeconomic data. GDP gaps estimated by age structure regressions are closely related to conventional measures using filters, time series methods, and structural models. Reliable estimates of potential GDP and other macroeconomic series often become available after (at least) a one-year lag. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of one or two years. Projections of the population’s age structure are comparatively reliable several years ahead and provide additional information to improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation.
Subjects: 
Age structure
Inflation forecasts
Potential GDP
JEL: 
E31
E44
J10
O52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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