Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/80997 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2011
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
WIDER Working Paper No. 2011/86
Verlag: 
The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), Helsinki
Zusammenfassung: 
Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows Bangladesh's long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.
Schlagwörter: 
climate change
uncertainty
stochastic simulation
CGE model
agriculture
Bangladesh
JEL: 
D58
Q54
Q56
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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