Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80997
Authors: 
Thurlow, James
Dorosh, Paul
Yu, Winston
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
WIDER Working Paper 2011/86
Abstract: 
Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows Bangladesh's long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.
Subjects: 
climate change
uncertainty
stochastic simulation
CGE model
agriculture
Bangladesh
JEL: 
D58
Q54
Q56
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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