Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80856
Authors: 
Siliverstovs, Boriss
Smirnov, Sergey
Tsukhlo, Sergey
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
KOF Working Papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 306
Abstract: 
This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we conclude that the use of surveys positively contributes to boosting forecast accuracy of industrial production compared with forecasts based on a benchmark univariate autoregressive model.
Subjects: 
The Great Recession
business tendency surveys
forecasting
model selection
Autometrics
Russia
JEL: 
C53
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
173.41 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.