Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/80822 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2012
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
KOF Working Papers No. 297
Verlag: 
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Zurich
Zusammenfassung: 
Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It highlights the difficulties of hitting a moving target and shows that in a realistic setting linear models in combination with survey data perform as good as much more sophisticated approaches.
Schlagwörter: 
forecasting
GDP revisions
survey data
experiment
JEL: 
E37
C35
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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