Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80822
Authors: 
Müller, Christian
Köberl, Eva Maria
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
KOF Working Papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 297
Abstract: 
Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It highlights the difficulties of hitting a moving target and shows that in a realistic setting linear models in combination with survey data perform as good as much more sophisticated approaches.
Subjects: 
forecasting
GDP revisions
survey data
experiment
JEL: 
E37
C35
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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