[Journal:] Journal of Industrial Engineering International [ISSN:] 2251-712X [Publisher:] SpringerOpen [Place:] Heidelberg [Volume:] 8 [Year:] 2012 [Pages:] 1-7
The paper examines the application of semi-Markov models to the phenomenon of earthquakes in Tehran province. Generally, earthquakes are not independent of each other, and time and place of earthquakes are related to previous earthquakes; moreover, the time between earthquakes affects the pattern of their occurrence; thus, this occurrence can be likened to semi-Markov models. In our work, we divided the province of Tehran into six regions and grouped the earthquakes regarding their magnitude into three classes. Using a semi-Markov model, it proceeds to predict the likelihood of the time and place of occurrence of earthquakes in the province.
semi-Markov model earthquake occurrence forecasting transition matrix