Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/77048
Authors: 
Brüggemann, Axel
Linne, Thomas
Year of Publication: 
2002
Series/Report no.: 
IWH Discussion Papers 157
Abstract: 
The aim of the paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolution of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects as in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate, weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good predictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities.
Subjects: 
financial crises
vulnerability indicator
central and eastern Europe
JEL: 
F31
F47
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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