Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/76761
Authors: 
Leist, Stefan
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, Universität Bern 11-07
Abstract: 
Contrary to standard agnostic statistical approaches an output gap estimate based on a New Keynesian Small Open Economy model provides the possibility to analyze the driving forces of the variation in GDP caused by nominal rigidities. This paper makes use of this and provides an estimate of a model based output gap that corresponds well with conventional measures. The results confirm conventional wisdom that most of the variation is due to foreign shocks. But the risk premium shock in the uncovered interest rate parity equation also plays an important role. It has a procyclical effect on the output gap except for the last recession.
Subjects: 
DSGE models
output gap
natural level of output
small open economy
business cycle
recessions
JEL: 
C11
C51
E32
F41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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