Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/76059
Authors: 
Flaig, Gebhard
Year of Publication: 
2001
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 607
Abstract: 
In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components. The main findings are that there exist three cycles with a period of about two, five and 13 years, respectively, and that the long-run development during the last 50 years can be represented by a segmented linear trend with a break in the drift rate in the early seventies. A further result is a remarkable decrease in the volatility of the cycle component and the recursive residuals over the last two decades.
Subjects: 
trend
cycle
unobserved components models
output gap
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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