Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/75720
Authors: 
Bandholz, Harm
Funke, Michael
Year of Publication: 
2001
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 571
Abstract: 
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to asuccessful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriatetool for forecasting business conditions.
Subjects: 
business cycles
leading indicators
turning points
Markovswitching
Germany
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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