Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/75555
Authors: 
Pesaran, M. Hashem
Year of Publication: 
2000
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 345
Abstract: 
This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to provide insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons.
Subjects: 
Probability forecasting
long run structural VARs
macroeconometric modelling
probability forecasts of inflation
interest rates
output growth
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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