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Documentos de trabajo No. 1e
Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI), Buenos Aires
The recent rise in commodity prices and the increase in price volatility have aroused certain concern and controversy among the leaders of the major world powers and international organisations over the possibility that a new food crisis could break out. This paper intends to delve into some aspects of the phenomenon known as commodity price volatility. First, we study the relationship between volatility and financial markets. We can infer from the literature that the empirical evidence as regards this relationship is not conclusive. Secondly, we present an econometric model to analyse the main factors that would determine the volatility of a group of agricultural commodities: corn, wheat, sorghum, rice, soybean, soybean oil and sunflower oil. Among the main factors that would determine volatility we found: US inflation volatility and US interest rate volatility; weather conditions related to Pacific Ocean currents, the growth of emerging countries and the level of inventories available. Lastly, we intend to determine whether the price volatility of the commodities under study affects Argentine exports of these products.
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