Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/74489
Authors: 
Fratzscher, Marcel
Sarno, Lucio
Zinna, Gabriele
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers 1290
Abstract: 
This paper provides an empirical test of the scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2011). This theory suggests that market participants may at times attach significantly more weight to individual economic fundamentals to rationalize the pricing of currencies, which are partly driven by unobservable shocks. Using novel survey data which directly measure foreign exchange scapegoats for 12 currencies and proprietary data on order flow, we find empirical evidence that strongly supports the scapegoat theory of exchange rates, with the resulting models explaining a large fraction of the variation and directional changes in exchange rates.
Subjects: 
scapegoat
exchange rates
economic fundamentals
survey data
JEL: 
F31
G10
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
492.93 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.