Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/74027
Authors: 
Vicini, Giorgio
Gracceva, Francesco
Markandya, Anil
Costantini, Valeria
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 89.2005
Abstract: 
This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyze projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level.
Subjects: 
Energy security
Energy scenarios
Oil and natural gas markets
JEL: 
Q40
Q41
Q48
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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