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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2005
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ifo Working Paper No. 3
Verlag: 
ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper presents new composite leading indicators for the two largest of the EU accession countries, Poland and Hungary. Using linear and non-linear dynamic factor models we find for both countries that a parsimonious specification, which combines national business cycle indicators,series reflecting trade volumes and supranational business expectations makes for the most reliable business cycle leaders. The composite leading indicators significantly Granger-cause GDP growth rates, while the estimated Markov-switching probabilities of being in a recessionarystate agree well with a priori determined cycle chronologies.
Schlagwörter: 
Business Cycles
Composite Leading Indicators
EU Enlargement
Markovswitching
Turning Points
JEL: 
C32
C53
E32
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
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