Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73832
Authors: 
Bandholz, Harm
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Ifo Working Paper 3
Abstract: 
This paper presents new composite leading indicators for the two largest of the EU accession countries, Poland and Hungary. Using linear and non-linear dynamic factor models we find for both countries that a parsimonious specification, which combines national business cycle indicators,series reflecting trade volumes and supranational business expectations makes for the most reliable business cycle leaders. The composite leading indicators significantly Granger-cause GDP growth rates, while the estimated Markov-switching probabilities of being in a recessionarystate agree well with a priori determined cycle chronologies.
Subjects: 
Business Cycles
Composite Leading Indicators
EU Enlargement
Markovswitching
Turning Points
JEL: 
C32
C53
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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