Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73798
Authors: 
Berlemann, Michael
Nelson, Forrest
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Ifo Working Paper 10
Abstract: 
While there are various techniques of inflation forecasting in use, none of them has proved to deliver consistently more accurate forecasts than the others. That is why most users of inflation forecasts monitor a variety of inflation indicators and forecasts and check them for consistency. This paper aims at contributing to an extension of themethods in use. We propose to conduct experimental inflation forecasting markets in order to uncover market participants' inflation expectations. While the markets directly deliver density forecasts of inflation they also allow to construct mean forecasts and a measure of forecast uncertainty. We also present evidence from a number of pilot markets underlining that the proposed method might enrich the arsenal of existing forecastingtechniques.
Subjects: 
Inflation forecast
field experiments
experimental stock markets
JEL: 
E58
F15
F33
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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