Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73717
Authors: 
Ruschinski, Monika
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
Ifo Working Paper 30
Abstract: 
The world economy in the last two decades is clearly marked by the integration of emerging countries in the international division of labor. To better understand the “globalization” effect, it is helpful to analyze the pattern and structure of world trade volume in the past, in order to draw conclusions for future development. An unobserved components model is used for decomposing world trade volume into trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. The analyses show that the process of the world trade volume is driven by the well-known fluctuations in form of the “Kitchin” and “Juglar Cycle”. Furthermore, there is one more cycle with a period between 4 and 5 years which improves the estimation results significantly. The information of the cyclical behavior of the time series is used for projections.
Subjects: 
World trade
economic integration
unobserved components model
forecasting
JEL: 
F02
F17
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.