Working Paper, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz 0616
Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this respect. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for a financial accelerator being behind this finding.
Leading indicator business cycle shock propagation financial accelerator bank markup